This study investigates the relationship between external debt and military spending in case of India over the period of 1970–2012. In doing so, we have applied the structural break unit root tests to examine stationarity properties of the variables. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to test whether cointegration exists in presence of structural breaks stemming in the series. Our results indicate the cointegration among external debt, military spending, debt servicing, and economic growth. Moreover, military spending and debt servicing add in external debt. Economic growth helps in lowering external debt. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis and Granger causality test reveal that military spending and economic growth cause external debt. The feedback effect also exists between external debt and debt servicing in case of India.
Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behavior of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.
This study applies the sequential panel selection method (SPSM) procedure proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) to investigate the time-series properties of energy consumption in 50 US states from 1963 to 2009. SPSM involves the classification of the entire panel into a group of stationary series and a group of non-stationary series to identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes. Empirical results obtained through SPSM with the panel KSS unit root test developed by Ucar and Omay (2009) combined with a Fourier function indicate that energy consumption in all the 50 US states are stationary. The results of this study have important policy implications for the 50 US states.
This paper proposes the hypothesis that multilateralism and regionalism are complementary, and that regional income convergence is likely with a like minded and committed regionalism that often has links geographically and culturally. The association between international trade, income per capita, and regional income convergence in founder members of ASEAN and SAARC, is explored by applying the Lumsdaine, and Papell approach. The causal relationships between the above variables are also studied in respective trade blocs by using Granger causality tests. The conclusion is that global reforms have had a greater impact on increasing trade for both trade blocs and induced convergence only in ASEAN-5 countries. The experience of ASEAN countries shows a two-way causal relationship between the flow from trade to regional income convergence, and vice versa. There is no evidence in SAARC countries for income convergence and causality.