International Science Index
Environmental Impact of Trade Sector Growth: Evidence from Tanzania
This paper attempted to investigate whether there is Granger-causality running from trade to environment as evidenced in the changing climatic condition and land degradation. Using Tanzania as the reference, VAR-Granger-causality test was employed to rationalize the conundrum of causal-effect relationship between trade and environment. The changing climatic condition, as the proxy of both nitrous oxide emissions (in thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent) and land degradation measured by the size of arable land were tested against trade using both exports and imports variables. The result indicated that neither of the trade variables Granger-cause the variability on gas emissions and arable land size. This suggests the possibility that all trade concerns in relation to environment to have been internalized in domestic policies to offset any likely negative consequence.
An Analysis of the Relationship between Manufacturing Growth and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Cointegration Approach
This paper examines the relationship between manufacturing growth and economic growth in South Africa using quarterly data ranging from 2001 to 2014. The paper employed the Johansen cointegration to test the Kaldor’s hypothesis. The Johansen cointegration results revealed that there is a long run relationship between GDP, manufacturing, service and employment. The Granger causality results revealed that there is a unidirectional causality running from manufacturing growth to GDP growth. The overall findings of the study confirm that Kaldor’s first law of growth is applicable in South African economy. Therefore, investment strategies and policies should be alignment towards promoting growth in the manufacturing sector in order to boost the economic growth of South Africa.
Granger Causal Nexus between Financial Development and Energy Consumption: Evidence from Cross Country Panel Data
This paper examines the Granger causal nexus between financial development and energy consumption in the group of 35 Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Countries over the period 1988-2012. The study uses two financial development indicators such as private sector credit and stock market capitalization and seven energy consumption indicators such as coal, oil, gas, electricity, hydro-electrical, nuclear and biomass. Using panel cointegration tests, the study finds that financial development and energy consumption are cointegrated, indicating the presence of a long-run relationship between the two. Using a panel vector error correction model (VECM), the study detects both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between financial development and energy consumption. The variation of this causality is due to the use of different proxies for both financial development and energy consumption. The policy implication of this study is that economic policies should recognize the differences in the financial development-energy consumption nexus in order to maintain sustainable development in the selected 35 FATF countries.
Adverse Reactions from Contrast Media in Patients Undergone Computed Tomography at the Department of Radiology, Srinagarind Hospital
Background: The incidence of adverse reactions to iodinated contrast media has risen. The dearth of reports on reactions to the administration of iso- and low-osmolar contrast media should be addressed. We, therefore, studied the profile of adverse reactions to iodinated contrast media; viz., (a) the body systems affected (b) causality, (c) severity, and (d) preventability. Objective: To study adverse reactions (causes and severity) to iodinated contrast media at Srinagarind Hospital. Method: Between March and July, 2015, 1,101 patients from the Department of Radiology were observed and interviewed for the occurrence of adverse reactions. The patients were classified per Naranjo’s algorithm and through use of an adverse reactions questionnaire. Results: A total of 105 cases (9.5%) reported adverse reactions (57% male; 43% female); among whom 2% were iso-osmolar vs. 98% low-osmolar. Diagnoses included hepatoma and cholangiocarcinoma (24.8%), colorectal cancer (9.5%), breast cancer (5.7%), cervical cancer (3.8%), lung cancer (2.9%), bone cancer (1.9%), and others (51.5%). Underlying diseases included hypertension and diabetes mellitus type 2. Mild, moderate, and severe adverse reactions accounted for 92, 5 and 3%, respectively. The respective groups of escalating symptoms included (a) mild urticaria, itching, rash, nausea, vomiting, dizziness, and headache; (b) moderate hypertension, hypotension, dyspnea, tachycardia and bronchospasm; and (c) severe laryngeal edema, profound hypotension, and convulsions. All reactions could be anticipated per Naranjo’s algorithm. Conclusion: Mild to moderate adverse reactions to low-osmolar contrast media were most common and these occurred immediately after administration. For patient safety and better outcomes, improving the identification of patients likely to have an adverse reaction is essential.
Determining the Direction of Causality between Creating Innovation and Technology Market
In this paper an attempt is made to establish causal nexuses between innovation and international trade in Russia. The topicality of this issue is determined by the necessity of choosing policy instruments for economic modernization and transition to innovative development. The vector auto regression (VAR) model and Granger test are applied for the Russian monthly data from 2005 until the second quartile of 2015. Both lagged import and export at the national level cause innovation, the latter starts to stimulate foreign trade since it is a remote lag. In comparison to aggregate data, the results by patent’s categories are more diverse. Importing technologies from foreign countries stimulates patent activity, while innovations created in Russia are only Granger causality for import to Commonwealth of Independent States.
Discontinuous Spacetime with Vacuum Holes as Explanation for Gravitation, Quantum Mechanics and Teleportation
Hole Vacuum theory is based on discontinuous spacetime that contains vacuum holes. Vacuum holes can explain gravitation, some laws of quantum mechanics and allow teleportation of matter. All massive bodies emit a flux of holes which curve the spacetime; if we increase the concentration of holes, it leads to length contraction and time dilation because the holes do not have the properties of extension and duration. In the limited case when space consists of holes only, the distance between every two points is equal to zero and time stops - outside of the Universe, the extension and duration properties do not exist. For this reason, the vacuum hole is the only particle in physics capable of describing gravitation using its own properties only. All microscopic particles must 'jump' continually and 'vibrate' due to the appearance of holes (impassable microscopic 'walls' in space), and it is the cause of the quantum behavior. Vacuum holes can explain the entanglement, non-locality, wave properties of matter, tunneling, uncertainty principle and so on. Particles do not have trajectories because spacetime is discontinuous and has impassable microscopic 'walls' due to the simple mechanical motion is impossible at small scale distances; it is impossible to 'trace' a straight line in the discontinuous spacetime because it contains the impassable holes. Spacetime 'boils' continually due to the appearance of the vacuum holes. For teleportation to be possible, we must send a body outside of the Universe by enveloping it with a closed surface consisting of vacuum holes. Since a material body cannot exist outside of the Universe, it reappears instantaneously in a random point of the Universe. Since a body disappears in one volume and reappears in another random volume without traversing the physical space between them, such a transportation method can be called teleportation (or Hole Teleportation). It is shown that Hole Teleportation does not violate causality and special relativity due to its random nature and other properties. Although Hole Teleportation has a random nature, it can be used for colonization of extrasolar planets by the help of the method called 'random jumps': after a large number of random teleportation jumps, there is a probability that the spaceship may appear near a habitable planet. We can create vacuum holes experimentally using the method proposed by Descartes: we must remove a body from the vessel without permitting another body to occupy this volume.
Analysis of Causality between Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Mexico 1971-2011
This paper analyzes the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis to test the causality relationship between economic activity, trade openness and carbon dioxide emissions in Mexico (1971-2011). The results achieved in this research show that there are three long-run relationships between production, trade openness, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. The EKC hypothesis was not verified in this research. Indeed, it was found evidence of a short-term unidirectional causality from GDP and GDP squared to carbon dioxide emissions, from GDP, GDP squared and TO to EC, and bidirectional causality between TO and GDP. Finally, it was found evidence of long-term unidirectional causality from all variables to carbon emissions. These results suggest that a reduction in energy consumption, economic activity, or an increase in trade openness would reduce pollution.
A Study of Islamic Stock Indices and Macroeconomic Variables
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship among the key macroeconomic variables and Islamic stock market in India. This study is based on the time series data of financial years 2009-2015 to explore the consistency of relationship between macroeconomic variables and Shariah Indices. The ADF (Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Statistic) and PP (Phillips–Perron Test Statistic) tests are employed to check stationarity of the data. The study depicts the long run relationship between Shariah indices and macroeconomic variables by using the Johansen Co-integration test. BSE Shariah and Nifty Shariah have uni-direct Granger causality. The outcome of VECM is significantly confirming the applicability of best fitted model. Thus, Islamic stock indices are proficiently working for the development of Indian economy. It suggests that by keeping eyes on Islamic stock market which will be more interactive in the future with other macroeconomic variables.
Measuring Enterprise Growth: Pitfalls and Implications
Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.
Analysis of Causality between Defect Causes Using Association Rule Mining
Construction defects are major components that result in negative impacts on project performance including schedule delays and cost overruns. Since construction defects generally occur when a few associated causes combine, a thorough understanding of defect causality is required in order to more systematically prevent construction defects. To address this issue, this paper uses association rule mining (ARM) to quantify the causality between defect causes, and social network analysis (SNA) to find indirect causality among them. The suggested approach is validated with 350 defect instances from concrete works in 32 projects in Korea. The results show that the interrelationships revealed by the approach reflect the characteristics of the concrete task and the important causes that should be prevented.
Usage of Military Spending, Debt Servicing and Growth for Dealing with Emergency Plan of Indian External Debt
This study investigates the relationship between external debt and military spending in case of India over the period of 1970–2012. In doing so, we have applied the structural break unit root tests to examine stationarity properties of the variables. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to test whether cointegration exists in presence of structural breaks stemming in the series. Our results indicate the cointegration among external debt, military spending, debt servicing, and economic growth. Moreover, military spending and debt servicing add in external debt. Economic growth helps in lowering external debt. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis and Granger causality test reveal that military spending and economic growth cause external debt. The feedback effect also exists between external debt and debt servicing in case of India.
The Relationship between Value-Added and Energy Consumption in Iran’s Industry Sector
This study aimed to explore the relationship between
energy consumption and value-added in Iran’s industry sector during
the time period 1973-2011. Annual data related to energy
consumption and value added in the industry sector were used. The
results of the study revealed a positive relationship between energy
consumption and value-added of the industry sector. Similarly, the
results showed that there is one-way causality between energy
consumption and value-added in the industry sector.
Trade Policy and Economic Growth of Turkey in Global Economy: New Empirical Evidences
This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or
not trade openness causes economic growth and trade policy changes
are good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy
before and after 1980. We employ Johansen co-integration and
Granger causality tests with error correction modeling based on
vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the
post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated
in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of
long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may
imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra
complementary economic reforms.
Sectoral Energy Consumption in South Africa and Its Implication for Economic Growth
South Africa is in its post-industrial era moving from
the primary and secondary sector to the tertiary sector. The study
investigated the impact of the disaggregated energy consumption
(coal, oil, and electricity) on the primary, secondary and tertiary
sectors of the economy between 1980 and 2012 in South Africa.
Using vector error correction model, it was established that South
Africa is an energy dependent economy, and that energy (especially
electricity and oil) is a limiting factor of growth. This implies that
implementation of energy conservation policies may hamper
economic growth. Output growth is significantly outpacing energy
supply, which has necessitated load shedding. To meet up the excess
energy demand, there is a need to increase the generating capacity
which will necessitate increased investment in the electricity sector as
well as strategic steps to increase oil production. There is also need to
explore more renewable energy sources, in order to meet the growing
energy demand without compromising growth and environmental
sustainability. Policy makers should also pursue energy efficiency
policies especially at sectoral level of the economy.
The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Study of Asian Countries
Main purpose of this study is to identify the impact of
government expenditure on economic growth in Asian Countries.
Consequently, main objective is to analyze whether government
expenditure causes economic growth in Asian countries vice versa
and then scrutinizing long-run equilibrium relationship exists
between them. The study completely based on secondary data. The
methodology being quantitative that includes econometrical
techniques of cointegration, panel fixed effects model and granger
causality in the context of panel data of Asian countries; Singapore,
Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Japan, China, Sri Lanka, India and
Bhutan with 44 observations in each country, totaling to 396
observations from 1970 to 2013. The model used is the random
effects panel OLS model. As with the above methodology, the study
found the fascinating outcome. At first, empirical findings exhibit a
momentous positive impact of government expenditure on Gross
Domestic Production in Asian region. Secondly, government
expenditure and economic growth indicate a long-run relationship in
Asian countries. In conclusion, there is a unidirectional causality
from economic growth to government expenditure and government
expenditure to economic growth in Asian countries. Hence the study
is validated that it is in line with the Keynesian theory and Wagner’s
law as well. Consequently, it can be concluded that role of
government would play a vital role in economic growth of Asian
Countries. However; if government expenditure did not figure out
with the economy’s needs it might be considerably inspiration the
economy in a negative way so that society bears the costs.
The Impact of Bank Consolidation on Lending to SMES in Nigeria
This paper seeks to assess the implications of bank
consolidation on lending, which largely determine the survival and
performance of small and medium scale enterprises and in turn the
development of the Nigerian economy. Ordinary least square
technique, correlation matrix test and Granger –causality test were
employed to measure the extent to which lending to small and
medium scale enterprises were influenced. The result showed that
bank deposit (BD) impacted on lending to small and medium scale
enterprises. Commercial and merchant bank lending rate had
statistically insignificant effect on the dependent variable. There is a
shift of focus by commercial banks from small and medium scale
enterprises (small customers) to major investors (big customers).
While micro finance banks work hard at providing funds to small and
medium scale entrepreneurs, their capacity to meet the needs of these
entrepreneurs is constrained. The capital and deposits of micro
finance bank should be boosted in order to effectively support small
and medium scale enterprises through loans.
Impact Assessment of Credit Policy and Medical Credit Facility (MCF) on Nigerian Private Sector Health Market: Evidence from Eight Nigerian States
A teeming set of doctors that graduated from various
universities within and outside Nigeria with the hope of practicing in
the country, has their hope shattered because of poor financing, lack
of medical equipments and a very weak healthcare systems. Such
hydra headed challenges, allows room for quackery which
increasingly contributes to the cause of mortality in Nigeria. With a
view of reversing the challenges of healthcare delivery and financing
in Nigeria, African Health Market for Equity (AHME), a project
funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation [With contribution
from Department For International Development (DFID)] and
currently implemented in three African Countries (Nigeria, Kenya
and Ghana) over a Five (5) year period supports the healthcare sector
via Medical credit fund (MCF). The study examines the impact of
credit policy and medical credit funding on Nigerian health market.
Ordinary least square analysis, correlation and granger causality tests
were employed to measure the extent to which the Nigerian
healthcare market has been influenced. Medical credit fund
significantly and positively influenced average monthly turnover of
private healthcare providers and Commercial bank’s lending rate had
a weak relationship with access to credit/approved loans (13.46%).
The programme has so far made 13.91% progress, which is very
poor, considering the minimum targeted private health care providers
(437.6) and expected number of loan approvals (180.4) for the two
years. Medical credit policy in Nigeria should be revised to include
private healthcare providers in rural area for more positive impact
and increased returns. Good brand advert and sensitization of the
programme to stakeholders and health pressure group, and an
extension of the programme beyond five years is necessary to better
address the issues raised in the study.
Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Mexico
The causality between energy consumption and
economic growth has been an important issue in the economic
literature. This paper studies the causal relationship between
electricity consumption and economic growth in Mexico for the
period of 1971-2011. In so doing, unit root and causality tests are
applied. The results show that energy consumption and economic
growth series are stationary and there is also a causality relationship
running from economic growth to electricity consumption. Therefore,
any energy conservation policy would have little or no impact at all
on economic growth in México.
The Impact of Size of the Regional Economic Blocs to the Country’s Flows of Trade: Evidence from COMESA, EAC and Tanzania
This paper attempted to assess whether the size of the regional economic bloc has an impact to the flow of trade to a particular country. Two different sized blocs (COMESA and EAC) and one country (Tanzania) have been used as the point of references. Using the results from of the analyses, the paper also was anticipated to establish whether it was rational for Tanzania to withdraw its membership from COMESA (the larger bloc) to join EAC (the small one). Gravity model has been used to estimate the relationship between the variables, from which the bilateral trade flows between Tanzania and the eighteen member countries of the two blocs (COMESA and EAC) was employed for the time between 2000 and 2013. In the model, the dummy variable for regional bloc (bloc) at which the Tanzania trade partner countries belong are also added to the model to understand which trade bloc exhibit higher trade flow with Tanzania. From the findings, it was noted that over the period of study (2000-2013) Tanzania acknowledged more than 257% of trade volume in EAC than in COMESA. Conclusive, it was noted that the flow of trade is explained by many other variables apart from the size of regional bloc; and that the size by itself offer insufficient evidence in causality relationship. The paper therefore remain neutral on such staggered switching decision since more analyses are required to establish the country’s trade flow, especially when if it had been in multiple membership of COMESA and EAC.
Governance and Economic Growth: Evidence of Ten Asian Countries
This study utilizes a frequency domain approach over
the period of 1996 to 2013 to examine the causal relationship between
governance and economic growth in ten Asian countries, which have
different levels of democracy; classified as “Free”, “Partly Free”, and
“Not Free” countries. The empirical results show that there is no
Granger causality running from governance to economic growth in
“Not Free” countries and “Partly Free” countries with the exception of
Singapore. As for “Free” countries such as South Korea and Taiwan,
there is a one-way causality running from governance to economic
growth. The findings of this study indicate that policy makers in South
Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore could use governance index to improve
their predictions of the future economic growth.
Interest Rate Fluctuation Effect on Commercial Bank’s Fixed Fund Deposit in Nigeria
Commercial banks in Nigeria adopted many strategies
to attract fresh deposits including the use of high deposit rate.
However, pricing of banking services moved in favor of the banks at
the expense of customers, resulting in their seeking other investment
alternatives rather than saving their money in the bank. Both deposit
and lending rates were greatly influenced by the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) decision on interest rate. Therefore, commercial bank
effort to attract deposits via manipulation of her rates was greatly
limited, otherwise the banks will be giving out more than it earned.
The study aimed at examining the relationship between interest rate
and fixed fund deposit of commercial banks, how policy-controlled
interest rate affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit The
researcher employed ordinary least square technique, using, multiple
linear regression, unrestricted vector auto-regression, correlation
matrix test, granger causality and impulse response graph in the
analysis. Commercial bank’s interest rates affected commercial
bank’s fixed fund deposit significantly while policy-controlled
interest rate did not significantly transmit through the commercial
bank’s interest rates to affect fixed fund deposit. While commercial
banks seek creative ways to expand their fixed fund deposit, policy
authorities in Nigeria should better coordinate interest rate fluctuation
and induce competition in the entire financial sector.
Semantic Enhanced Social Media Sentiments for Stock Market Prediction
Traditional document representation for classification
follows Bag of Words (BoW) approach to represent the term weights.
The conventional method uses the Vector Space Model (VSM) to
exploit the statistical information of terms in the documents and they
fail to address the semantic information as well as order of the terms
present in the documents. Although, the phrase based approach
follows the order of the terms present in the documents rather than
semantics behind the word. Therefore, a semantic concept based
approach is used in this paper for enhancing the semantics by
incorporating the ontology information. In this paper a novel method
is proposed to forecast the intraday stock market price directional
movement based on the sentiments from Twitter and money control
news articles. The stock market forecasting is a very difficult and
highly complicated task because it is affected by many factors such
as economic conditions, political events and investor’s sentiment etc.
The stock market series are generally dynamic, nonparametric, noisy
and chaotic by nature. The sentiment analysis along with wisdom of
crowds can automatically compute the collective intelligence of
future performance in many areas like stock market, box office sales
and election outcomes. The proposed method utilizes collective
sentiments for stock market to predict the stock price directional
movements. The collective sentiments in the above social media have
powerful prediction on the stock price directional movements as
up/down by using Granger Causality test.
Causal Relationship between Macro-Economic Indicators and Funds Unit Prices Behavior: Evidence from Malaysian Islamic Equity Unit Trust Funds Industry
In this study, attempt has been made to investigate the
relationship specifically the causal relation between fund unit prices
of Islamic equity unit trust fund which measure by fund NAV and the
selected macro-economic variables of Malaysian economy by using
VECM causality test and Granger causality test. Monthly data has
been used from Jan, 2006 to Dec, 2012 for all the variables. The
findings of the study showed that industrial production index,
political election and financial crisis are the only variables having
unidirectional causal relationship with fund unit price. However the
global oil price is having bidirectional causality with fund NAV.
Thus, it is concluded that the equity unit trust fund industry in
Malaysia is an inefficient market with respect to the industrial
production index, global oil prices, political election and financial
crisis. However the market is approaching towards informational
efficiency at least with respect to four macroeconomic variables,
treasury bill rate, money supply, foreign exchange rate, and
A Sociocybernetics Data Analysis Using Causality in Tourism Networks
The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical
model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in
particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was
carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our
interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General
Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships
associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of
appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases.
For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be
used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that
of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most
relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide
information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to
forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in
the immediate future.
The Relationship of Private Savings and Economic Growth: Case of Croatia
The main objective of the research in this paper is to empirically assess the causal relationship of private savings and economic growth in the Republic of Croatia. Households’ savings are approximated by household deposits in banks, while domestic income is approximated by industrial production volume indices. Vector Autoregression model and Granger causality tests are used to in order to analyse the relationship among private savings and economic growth. Since ADF unit root tests have shown that both mentioned series are non stationary at levels, series are first differenced in order to become stationary. Therefore, VAR model is estimated with percentage change in private savings and percentage change in domestic income, which can be interpreted as economic growth in case of positive percentage change in domestic income. The Granger causality test has shown that there is no causal relationship among private savings and economic growth in Croatia. The impulse response functions have shown that the impact of shock in domestic income on private savings change is stronger than the impact of private saving on growth. Variance decompositions show that both economic growth and private saving change explain the largest part of its own forecast variance. The research has shown that the link between private savings economic and growth in Croatia is weak, what is in line with relevant empirical research in small open economies.
Modeling Residential Electricity Consumption Function in Malaysia: Time Series Approach
As the Malaysian residential electricity consumption continued to increase rapidly, effective energy policies, which address factors affecting residential electricity consumption, is urgently needed. This study attempts to investigate the relationship between residential electricity consumption (EC), real disposable income (Y), price of electricity (Pe) and population (Po) in Malaysia for 1978-2011 period. Unlike previous studies on Malaysia, the current study focuses on the residential sector, a sector that is important for the contemplation of energy policy. The Phillips-Perron (P-P) unit root test is employed to infer the stationarity of each variable while the bound test is executed to determine the existence of co-integration relationship among the variables, modelled in an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. The CUSUM and CUSUM of squares tests are applied to ensure the stability of the model. The results suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship and bidirectional Granger causality between EC and the macroeconomic variables. The empirical findings will help policy makers of Malaysia in developing new monitoring standards of energy consumption. As it is the major contributing factor in economic growth and CO2 emission, there is a need for more proper planning in Malaysia to attain future targets in order to cut emissions.
Disclosing the Relationship among CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Bilateral Trade between Singapore and Malaysia: An Econometric Analysis
The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship among CO2 per capita emissions, energy consumption, economic growth and bilateral trade between Singapore and Malaysia for the 1970-2011 period. ARDL model and Granger causality tests are employed for the analysis. Results of bound F-statistics suggest that long-run relationship exists between CO2 per capita (PCO2) and its determinants. The EKC hypothesis is not supported in Malaysia. Carbon emissions are mainly determined by energy consumption in the short and long run. While, exports to Singapore is a significant variable in explaining PCO2 emissions in Malaysia in long-run. Furthermore, we find a unidirectional causal relationship running from economic growth to PCO2 emissions.
Testing the Relationship between Economic Freedoms and Growth by Panel Causality Application: Case of Middle East Countries
Economic freedoms, most emphasized issue in the recent years, are considered to affect economic growth and performance via institutional structure. In this context, a model that includes Turkey and Middle East Countries, and where the effects of economic freedom on growth are examined, was formed. For the groups of countries determined, in the study carried out by using the dataset belonging the period of 2004 - 2009, between economic freedoms and growth, a negative relationship was observed as group. In the sense of individual effects, it was identified that there was a positive relationship in terms of some Middle East Countries and Turkey.
Model Inversion of a Two Degrees of Freedom Linearized PUMA from Bicausal Bond Graphs
A bond graph model of a two degrees of freedom
PUMA is described. System inversion gives the system input
required to generate a given system output. In order to get the system
inversion of the PUMA manipulator, a linearization of the nonlinear
bond graph is obtained. Hence, the bicausality of the linearized bond
graph of the PUMA manipulator is applied. Thus, the bicausal bond
graph provides a systematic way of generating the equations of the
system inversion. Simulation results to verify the calculated input for
a given output are shown.
Expert Witness Testimony in the Battered Woman Syndrome
The Expert Witness Testimony in the Battered
Woman Syndrome Expert witness testimony (EWT) is a kind of
information given by an expert specialized in the field (here in BWS)
to the jury in order to help the court better understand the case. EWT
does not always work in favor of the battered women. Two main
decision-making models are discussed in the paper: the Mathematical
model and the Explanation model. In the first model, the jurors
calculate ″the importance and strength of each piece of evidence″
whereas in the second model they try to integrate the EWT with the
evidence and create a coherent story that would describe the crime.
The jury often misunderstands and misjudges battered women for
their action (or in this case inaction). They assume that these women
are masochists and accept being mistreated for if a man abuses a
woman constantly, she should and could divorce him or simply leave
at any time. The research in the domain found that indeed, expert
witness testimony has a powerful influence on juror’s decisions thus
its quality needs to be further explored. One of the important factors
that need further studies is a bias called the dispositionist worldview
(a belief that what happens to people is of their own doing). This
kind of attributional bias represents a tendency to think that a
person’s behavior is due to his or her disposition, even when the
behavior is clearly attributed to the situation. Hypothesis The
hypothesis of this paper is that if a juror has a dispositionist
worldview then he or she will blame the rape victim for triggering the
assault. The juror would therefore commit the fundamental
attribution error and believe that the victim’s disposition caused the
rape and not the situation she was in. Methods The subjects in the
study were 500 randomly sampled undergraduate students from
McGill, Concordia, Université de Montréal and UQAM.
Dispositional Worldview was scored on the Dispositionist
Worldview Questionnaire. After reading the Rape Scenarios, each
student was asked to play the role of a juror and answer a
questionnaire consisting of 7 questions about the responsibility,
causality and fault of the victim. Results The results confirm the
hypothesis which states that if a juror has a dispositionist worldview
then he or she will blame the rape victim for triggering the assault.
By doing so, the juror commits the fundamental attribution error
because he will believe that the victim’s disposition, and not the
constraints or opportunities of the situation, caused the rape scenario.